KELLY

via CAUSALEA

Glass Lab

Who is using KELLY?

Pick a path once — Sarah is the beta default for calm forecasting. Architect opens the full workspace.

Not advice to act — forecasts and proof stay honest. You can switch to Architect anytime via All details.

Account

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Settings

Quick check before you act

Use this before acting. Write your decision, smallest next step, and unacceptable outcome — human check, not proof.

Architect workspace — maps to existing panels. User Tablet default unchanged.

Forecast

Glass Lab

Open panels

Loading proof honesty board…

Research workspace — pick a lane, then open only the instruments you need. Everything starts minimized.

Live Engine Loop

Your answer

The main template answer — expand when ready.

Quick read

Live pattern from the graph — expand for the full read.

A fast, honest read from what KELLY sees right now — not a final proof score.

Tap when you want KELLY to remember a test

Operate tools

Delegation, paper trades, broker stub — practice only.

Delegation policy

Human-in-the-loop authorization receipts link delegated paper acts to forecasts — firewall unchanged.

Delegation unlocks in Operate mode or with DELEGATION_POLICY_ENABLED

Practice trade ledger

Record paper fills as hash-chained receipts — practice arithmetic only, not audited live PnL.

Paper execution unlocks in Operate mode or with PAPER_EXECUTION_ENABLED

Operate lane health

Delegation, execution, and broker-stub chains — posture signals only, not claim proof.

Broker stub receipts

Simulated broker fills require human-confirmed delegation — not live connectivity.

Broker stub unlocks in Operate mode or with BROKER_STUB_ENABLED

Before you act

25-second human check before a real decision.

Take 25 seconds: say the decision, the next-day action, and what would be unacceptable.

Template & focus

Pick a focus to narrow the answer.

Engine pulse

Tap to cycle

What KELLY Is Doing Right Now

Engine heartbeat and proof posture.

Calibration Report Card

Forward-settled scorecard when enough outcomes exist.

Forward-settled scorecard gated by faithfulness posture and ensemble contradiction density.

What KELLY is doing — and why it matters

How the engine thinks — expand when you want the story.

A causal memory engine that writes things down before outcomes arrive, then scores itself honestly.

Use This Phone's Location

Local weather, hazards, and nearby teams from this device.

Tap once to let KELLY use this device's approximate location for local weather, hazard, public-health, transport, and nearby-team views. The browser will ask permission first.

permission not asked yet

Forecasts

Horizon, accuracy, learning loop, and historical reference memory — one slice at a time.

How Far Ahead KELLY Can Look

Forward And Backward Accuracy

Calibration Report Card

25-Second Decision Card

Same stress protocol as the Answer tab — evaluate before acting on calibration reads.

Regime-Break Timeline

Tail Risk And Antifragility

Is KELLY Learning From Real Outcomes?

Calibration drive

Unified forward proof runway — settlement drive, unlock ladder, and supersession rung in one receipt.

Historical Map

Past public observations build reference classes. They help KELLY compare today with what already happened, but they do not count as live proof unless a forecast was written before the outcome.

Source-of-truth corpus All configured history Reference memory only

What This Is

How KELLY Thinks Through Any Template

CAUSALEA V3.0 Reading List + Build Phases

21 books in engine loop order — perceive → calibrate → reason → decide → adapt → remember — wrapped by endure and align.

Live Data

Engine pulse first, then feeds and credentials.

Engine Vitals

Heartbeat first: loop health, proof samples, and whether the engine is keeping up.

1

Public Data Feeds

What outside signals are arriving, accepted, or stale.

2

API Keys

Credentials and transport setup for each feed.

Proof

Read in order: honesty → evidence → audit → math → discovery → future engines.

0

Proof Honesty Board

Full mirror of GET /api/transparency — forward proof, internal ledger, wired flags, and every known gap.

1

Observation Quality

How strong is the live evidence before any claim is written?

5

Weak Node Strengthening

Targeted reinforcement for the lowest-confidence nodes without changing the canonical writer.

2

KELLY Ensemble Audit

Live role audit. Primary writes the official claim; Shadow, Critic, Replay, and Continuity write evidence rows only.

3

Claim Boundary Firewall

These are the claims the engine is allowed or forbidden to make from the evidence it has right now.

4a

Brier Score And Do-Calculus

Calibration math and causal identification spine.

4b

Formal Model Check

Structural checks on the current model packet.

6a

Active Causal Discovery

Correlation and lag become ranked hypotheses only. Hard causal language waits for intervention or valid identification evidence.

6b

Edge Hardening

Edges can be sharpened as provisional adapters; hardening is locked behind stronger evidence.

+

Ensemble Engine Registry

Gated v2 scaffolds for future audit engines. Not a second vote on the live answer; env-off until Phase 3 clears.

Memory & Upgrades

Continuity receipts, durable storage, and the upgrade gates that unlock the next build phase.

1

Continuity Memory

Live continuity receipts, restore checks, and what the engine is watching across restarts.

2

Memory Persistence

Database, backup, cache, and redundant copy state that keeps history from disappearing.

3

Upgrade Gates

These are measurable upgrade gates. A card changes only when the engine evidence changes.

Developer Tools

Manual ticks, decision card, and raw packet — kept separate from the live reading flow.

25-Second Decision Card


      

Manual Signal Tick

Use this to show a new observation entering the system. Signals are normalized 0-1.


      

Feature Surface

Paper execution ledger

Developer duplicate of the progressive paper-fill form — same POST /api/execution/paper route.


      

Raw Packet


      

Ownership Notice

© 2026 Aaron Moyer. All rights reserved. Causalea™ and KELLY™ are trademarks of Aaron Moyer.

This showcase is proprietary decision-support and research infrastructure. It is not open source, financial advice, betting advice, emergency guidance, medical advice, legal advice, guaranteed profit, guaranteed prediction, or proof of true causality from correlation alone.