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rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_forecast_calibration","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:calibration_records","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:forecast_workspace","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:outcome_settlements","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the forecast_calibration production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for forecast_calibration.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: forecast-workspace-v1 resolved forecasts and proof-spine calibration rows","read calibration_records","read forecast_workspace","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:forecast_calibration","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_482e91683fa818e9","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"3ed517a488df48d00b300ca7900335a8cd38e47b8a85324bcc6bcb57583e8e27"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_independent_external_review","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:independent_external_review","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"independent_external_review","title":"production_holdout_gap:independent_external_review","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_independent_external_review","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:external_review_attestations","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the independent_external_review production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for independent_external_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: external witness, signed attestation, and independent review packets","read external_review_attestations","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:independent_external_review","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_7ab6c6a7941bd767","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"5207a66ff99df0e83cee51a814942a7c99728a18097c3b463c1cc9e2d3153786"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_memory_governance","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:memory_governance","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"memory_governance","title":"production_holdout_gap:memory_governance","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_memory_governance","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:event_ledger","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:memory_court_sessions","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the memory_governance production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for memory_governance.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: memory court sessions, canary cells, and governed memory proposals","read event_ledger","read memory_court_sessions","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:memory_governance","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_eb98013e1c8b741c","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"4f55f42c3933071255f982ab16e5dff7ecfd462c533120287ca2827f0a1653fd"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_operator_transparency","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:operator_transparency","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"operator_transparency","title":"production_holdout_gap:operator_transparency","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_operator_transparency","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:agent_reports","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:deployment_events","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the operator_transparency production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for operator_transparency.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: operator UI honesty, Glass Lab, public status, and deployment visibility checks","read agent_reports","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:operator_transparency","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_9497405e249afb9b","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"ef857e513c5371a14e7c6dde1909c184a77d929da22713cd51be4867fab57d2a"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_replay_integrity","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:replay_integrity","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"replay_integrity","title":"production_holdout_gap:replay_integrity","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_replay_integrity","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:event_ledger","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:replay_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the replay_integrity production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for replay_integrity.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: event ledger, WAL, receipt-chain, and replay reconstruction rows","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read replay_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:replay_integrity","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_bd2e63e37ae5566d","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"b3085cce7a86e0928271f883971ee92af42740a06780b1f85652cf7df395dfcd"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:schema_constitutional","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"schema_constitutional","title":"production_holdout_gap:schema_constitutional","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:event_ledger","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:route_authority_manifest","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the schema_constitutional production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for schema_constitutional.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: schema court, route authority, migrations, and constitutional governance receipts","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read route_authority_manifest"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:schema_constitutional","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_09979f24cec59844","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"980f5ea6919fda1aa83a6f093141b5c5a3957feac123b38a1eb7c76951f3ae07"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:settlement_outcomes","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"settlement_outcomes","title":"production_holdout_gap:settlement_outcomes","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:outcome_settlements","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the settlement_outcomes production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for settlement_outcomes.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: outcome settlement spine and resolution-oracle rows","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:settlement_outcomes","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_d2d4ce134bffaacb","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"a1484663f84ca3eedd9969ffc87f1c8034a1fc223477a6a13f34c20d5502c3d4"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_source_contamination","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:source_contamination","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"source_contamination","title":"production_holdout_gap:source_contamination","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_source_contamination","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:agent_reports","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:source_events","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the source_contamination production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for source_contamination.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: source immune, feed provenance, quarantine, and contamination checks","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:source_contamination","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_5548b39367b99944","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"85901f34a171b430d5617677b580188074dd5294f6ad15d0a483f277e1ce991f"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:survival_antifragile","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"survival_antifragile","title":"production_holdout_gap:survival_antifragile","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:deployment_events","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:event_ledger","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the survival_antifragile production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for survival_antifragile.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: incident, chaos drill, outage, rollback, and antifragile recovery receipts","read deployment_events","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:survival_antifragile","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_b715919f705b143f","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"b7cac645ba895fe8b862fd977fa4f9ac1c27594ddce4c4f442160abafdf3deed"},{"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","id":"holdout_gap_uncertainty_communication","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:uncertainty_communication","status":"open","state_transition":"production_holdout_gap_to_source_plan_to_test_to_closure_to_memory_court_candidate","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","domain_id":"uncertainty_communication","title":"production_holdout_gap:uncertainty_communication","observed_signal":"missing_domain_receipt action:collect_source_bound_rows rows:0/3","why_it_matters":"Layer-B evidence cannot be earned until this domain has non-fixture, source-bound, benchmark-positive settled holdout rows.","unknown_variables":["missing_settled_domain_rows","missing_or_weak_baseline_comparison","source_bound_replayable_holdout_receipts"],"active_hypotheses":[{"hypothesis_id":"hyp_holdout_gap_uncertainty_communication","claim":"The current Level-B gap is caused by missing or underperforming settled production-holdout evidence, not by proof machinery absence.","status":"candidate"}],"missing_evidence":["field:id","field:domain_id","field:issued_at","field:observed_at","field:probability","field:actual","field:baseline_probability","field:settlement_receipt_hash","field:source_question","control:independent_review_present","control:replay_hash_present","control:prequential_ready","control:severe_test_ready","binding:holdout_manifest_hash","binding:settlement_receipt_hash","binding:replay_hash","binding:source_receipts","settled_rows_needed:3"],"missing_sources":[{"source_id":"table:agent_reports","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:production_holdout_source_rows","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"},{"source_id":"table:proof_receipts","evidence_needed":"settled domain-tagged holdout rows with replay and settlement bindings","status":"needed"}],"self_generated_question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the uncertainty_communication production-holdout gap?","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for uncertainty_communication.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: claim boundary, uncertainty communication, and public-language receipts","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:uncertainty_communication","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"reality_checks_running":[{"check_id":"reality_check_fe533c089defcf24","status":"planned","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"]}],"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","priority_score":0.935,"memory_mutation_candidate":false,"memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"autonomous_governed_memory_write_candidate":false,"autonomous_governed_graphstate_candidate":false,"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"contentHash":"2e8a523df8828a587ce86a8dff3e3d8cdae32f375e1305ea224bc1519fba15fd"}],"boundary":{"discovery_bridge_only":true,"evidence_plan_only":true,"public_user_triggered":false,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"claim_promoted":false},"contentHash":"3e4917366c2f680648579c2c48e4f312990828e16b1efc48e9fb85c250e5cbdb"},"unknown_ledger":{"ok":true,"version":"unknown-ledger-v1","status":"UNKNOWN_LEDGER_ACTIVE_GOVERNED_AUTONOMY_READY","public_safe":true,"read_surface_only":true,"read_only":true,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"entry_count":533,"surprise_count":170,"blind_spot_count":27,"library_closure_gap_count":4,"truth_mutation_count":1,"top_priority_id":"unk_3d8f912387a411bb","entries":[{"id":"unk_3d8f912387a411bb","title":"forecast_surprise:autonomous_discovery_surprise_1","status":"open","version":"unknown-ledger-v1","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"unknown_id":"unknown_3d8f912387a411bb","contentHash":"5c4c2e8e013a50d23265f1d791a47d16e4455865c555546b92551217fea17777","public_safe":true,"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"memory_written":false,"priority_score":0.98,"why_it_matters":"Prediction error is reality telling KELLY which variable, source, or causal assumption was missing.","experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"missing_sources":[{"status":"needed","source_id":"source_needed:forecast_error_attribution","evidence_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},{"status":"needed","source_id":"source_needed:candidate_missing_variable","evidence_needed":"candidate_missing_variable"},{"status":"needed","source_id":"source_needed:next_settlement_comparison","evidence_needed":"next_settlement_comparison"}],"observed_signal":"brier:0.8281","missing_evidence":["forecast_error_attribution","candidate_missing_variable","next_settlement_comparison"],"state_transition":"prediction_error_to_named_unknown","active_hypotheses":[{"claim":"What missing 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It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_015da4a02cba1581","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for distribution_shift_robustness.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: freshness, drift, deploy parity, and distribution-shift monitor rows","read calibration_records","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:distribution_shift_robustness","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":8},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_domain_transfer","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:domain_transfer","title":"production_holdout_gap:domain_transfer","domain_id":"domain_transfer","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_domain_transfer","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_47cd63b3c2989ca6","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for domain_transfer.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: cross-domain transfer, generality ladder, and transfer benchmark rows","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:domain_transfer","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":9},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_forecast_calibration","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:forecast_calibration","title":"production_holdout_gap:forecast_calibration","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"version":"value-of-information-v1","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","estimable":true,"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_forecast_calibration","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"expected_best_after_information":0.82,"information_cost":0.1065,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"net_information_value":-0.076625,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","noWrite":true,"graphstate_mutated":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","receipt_id":"voi_7eb127b2d19e811d"},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for forecast_calibration.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: forecast-workspace-v1 resolved forecasts and proof-spine calibration rows","read calibration_records","read forecast_workspace","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:forecast_calibration","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":10},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_independent_external_review","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:independent_external_review","title":"production_holdout_gap:independent_external_review","domain_id":"independent_external_review","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_independent_external_review","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_b639aaa0a3604e6d","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for independent_external_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: external witness, signed attestation, and independent review packets","read external_review_attestations","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:independent_external_review","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":11},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_memory_governance","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:memory_governance","title":"production_holdout_gap:memory_governance","domain_id":"memory_governance","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_memory_governance","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_a07c78f75a630013","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for memory_governance.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: memory court sessions, canary cells, and governed memory proposals","read event_ledger","read memory_court_sessions","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:memory_governance","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":12},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_operator_transparency","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:operator_transparency","title":"production_holdout_gap:operator_transparency","domain_id":"operator_transparency","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_operator_transparency","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_ca8fb04888c6434c","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for operator_transparency.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: operator UI honesty, Glass Lab, public status, and deployment visibility checks","read agent_reports","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:operator_transparency","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":13},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_replay_integrity","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:replay_integrity","title":"production_holdout_gap:replay_integrity","domain_id":"replay_integrity","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_replay_integrity","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_f12c00edd77d07a5","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for replay_integrity.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: event ledger, WAL, receipt-chain, and replay reconstruction rows","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read replay_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:replay_integrity","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":14},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:schema_constitutional","title":"production_holdout_gap:schema_constitutional","domain_id":"schema_constitutional","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_17f4e34e601ab354","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for schema_constitutional.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: schema court, route authority, migrations, and constitutional governance receipts","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read route_authority_manifest"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:schema_constitutional","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":15},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:settlement_outcomes","title":"production_holdout_gap:settlement_outcomes","domain_id":"settlement_outcomes","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_97897842e09574fc","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for settlement_outcomes.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: outcome settlement spine and resolution-oracle rows","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:settlement_outcomes","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":16},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_source_contamination","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:source_contamination","title":"production_holdout_gap:source_contamination","domain_id":"source_contamination","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_source_contamination","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_89db8fde21d45081","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for source_contamination.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: source immune, feed provenance, quarantine, and contamination checks","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:source_contamination","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":17},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:survival_antifragile","title":"production_holdout_gap:survival_antifragile","domain_id":"survival_antifragile","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. 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It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_4befe06e6dede26a","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.782938},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.782938}},"information_cost":0.10775,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.070688,"gross_information_value":0.037062,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":20},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"unk_0622eb50e34b8c24","unknown_id":"unknown_0622eb50e34b8c24","title":"forecast_surprise:kfw_mre6dqf6_532650a4b9c2358e","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","priority_score":0.9225,"voi_rank_score":0.9225,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:unk_0622eb50e34b8c24","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. 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It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_e8ecea67a2e9c7fc","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for adversarial_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: adversarial council, blind fanout, dissent, and quorum-review rows","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:adversarial_review","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":6},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_causal_intervention","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:causal_intervention","title":"production_holdout_gap:causal_intervention","domain_id":"causal_intervention","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_causal_intervention","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_5e6304f88203cc7a","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for causal_intervention.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: causal intervention, do-calculus, counterfactual, and policy-impact receipts","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:causal_intervention","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":7},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_distribution_shift_robustness","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:distribution_shift_robustness","title":"production_holdout_gap:distribution_shift_robustness","domain_id":"distribution_shift_robustness","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_distribution_shift_robustness","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_015da4a02cba1581","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for distribution_shift_robustness.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: freshness, drift, deploy parity, and distribution-shift monitor rows","read calibration_records","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:distribution_shift_robustness","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":8},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_domain_transfer","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:domain_transfer","title":"production_holdout_gap:domain_transfer","domain_id":"domain_transfer","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_domain_transfer","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_47cd63b3c2989ca6","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for domain_transfer.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: cross-domain transfer, generality ladder, and transfer benchmark rows","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:domain_transfer","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":9},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_forecast_calibration","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:forecast_calibration","title":"production_holdout_gap:forecast_calibration","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"version":"value-of-information-v1","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","estimable":true,"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_forecast_calibration","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"expected_best_after_information":0.82,"information_cost":0.1065,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"net_information_value":-0.076625,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","noWrite":true,"graphstate_mutated":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","receipt_id":"voi_7eb127b2d19e811d"},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for forecast_calibration.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: forecast-workspace-v1 resolved forecasts and proof-spine calibration rows","read calibration_records","read forecast_workspace","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:forecast_calibration","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":10},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_independent_external_review","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:independent_external_review","title":"production_holdout_gap:independent_external_review","domain_id":"independent_external_review","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_independent_external_review","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_b639aaa0a3604e6d","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for independent_external_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: external witness, signed attestation, and independent review packets","read external_review_attestations","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:independent_external_review","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":11},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_memory_governance","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:memory_governance","title":"production_holdout_gap:memory_governance","domain_id":"memory_governance","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_memory_governance","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_a07c78f75a630013","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for memory_governance.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: memory court sessions, canary cells, and governed memory proposals","read event_ledger","read memory_court_sessions","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:memory_governance","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":12},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_operator_transparency","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:operator_transparency","title":"production_holdout_gap:operator_transparency","domain_id":"operator_transparency","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_operator_transparency","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_ca8fb04888c6434c","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for operator_transparency.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: operator UI honesty, Glass Lab, public status, and deployment visibility checks","read agent_reports","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:operator_transparency","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":13},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_replay_integrity","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:replay_integrity","title":"production_holdout_gap:replay_integrity","domain_id":"replay_integrity","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_replay_integrity","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_f12c00edd77d07a5","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for replay_integrity.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: event ledger, WAL, receipt-chain, and replay reconstruction rows","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read replay_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:replay_integrity","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":14},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:schema_constitutional","title":"production_holdout_gap:schema_constitutional","domain_id":"schema_constitutional","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_17f4e34e601ab354","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for schema_constitutional.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: schema court, route authority, migrations, and constitutional governance receipts","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read route_authority_manifest"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:schema_constitutional","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":15},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:settlement_outcomes","title":"production_holdout_gap:settlement_outcomes","domain_id":"settlement_outcomes","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_97897842e09574fc","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for settlement_outcomes.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: outcome settlement spine and resolution-oracle rows","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:settlement_outcomes","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":16},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_source_contamination","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:source_contamination","title":"production_holdout_gap:source_contamination","domain_id":"source_contamination","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_source_contamination","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. It can recommend whether more evidence is worth seeking, but it does not authorize execution or ground-truth writes.","estimable":true,"receipt_id":"voi_89db8fde21d45081","recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","current_decision":{"actions":[{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125},{"id":"wait","expected_value":0}],"current_best_action":{"id":"collect_evidence","expected_value":0.790125}},"information_cost":0.1065,"graphstate_mutated":false,"requiredBeforeAction":["named_decision_boundary","information_source_plan","cost_of_delay_review","settlement_or_feedback_route"],"net_information_value":-0.076625,"gross_information_value":0.029875,"claim_promoted_by_this_receipt":false,"memory_written_by_this_receipt":false,"expected_best_after_information":0.82},"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for source_contamination.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: source immune, feed provenance, quarantine, and contamination checks","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:source_contamination","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"why_this_first":"Keep visible, but do not delay higher-value closure work for this unknown.","direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false,"rank":17},{"version":"discovery-voi-ranker-v1","sub_organ_id":"value_of_information_scorer","entry_id":"holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:survival_antifragile","title":"production_holdout_gap:survival_antifragile","domain_id":"survival_antifragile","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","priority_score":0.935,"voi_rank_score":0.935,"recommendation":"do_not_delay_for_information","value_of_information":{"label":"unknown_ledger:holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","status":"VALUE_OF_INFORMATION_ESTIMATED","noWrite":true,"version":"value-of-information-v1","boundary":"Value-of-information is a decision-timing receipt. 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truth.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":["memory_court_review_required"],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":6,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_adversarial_review","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:adversarial_review","domain_id":"adversarial_review","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the adversarial_review production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for adversarial_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write 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promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":8,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_distribution_shift_robustness","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:distribution_shift_robustness","domain_id":"distribution_shift_robustness","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the distribution_shift_robustness production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for distribution_shift_robustness.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: freshness, drift, deploy parity, and distribution-shift monitor rows","read calibration_records","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:distribution_shift_robustness","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":9,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_domain_transfer","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:domain_transfer","domain_id":"domain_transfer","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the domain_transfer production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for domain_transfer.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: cross-domain transfer, generality ladder, and transfer benchmark rows","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:domain_transfer","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":10,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_forecast_calibration","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:forecast_calibration","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the forecast_calibration production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for forecast_calibration.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: forecast-workspace-v1 resolved forecasts and proof-spine calibration rows","read calibration_records","read forecast_workspace","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:forecast_calibration","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout 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source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the independent_external_review production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for independent_external_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: external witness, signed attestation, and independent review packets","read external_review_attestations","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:independent_external_review","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":12,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_memory_governance","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:memory_governance","domain_id":"memory_governance","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the memory_governance production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for memory_governance.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: memory court sessions, canary cells, and governed memory proposals","read event_ledger","read memory_court_sessions","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:memory_governance","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":13,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_operator_transparency","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:operator_transparency","domain_id":"operator_transparency","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the operator_transparency production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for operator_transparency.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: operator UI honesty, Glass Lab, public status, and deployment visibility checks","read agent_reports","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:operator_transparency","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":14,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_replay_integrity","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:replay_integrity","domain_id":"replay_integrity","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the replay_integrity production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for replay_integrity.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: event ledger, WAL, receipt-chain, and replay reconstruction rows","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read replay_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:replay_integrity","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":15,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:schema_constitutional","domain_id":"schema_constitutional","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the schema_constitutional production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for schema_constitutional.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: schema court, route authority, migrations, and constitutional governance receipts","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read route_authority_manifest"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:schema_constitutional","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":16,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:settlement_outcomes","domain_id":"settlement_outcomes","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the settlement_outcomes production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for settlement_outcomes.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: outcome settlement spine and resolution-oracle rows","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:settlement_outcomes","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":17,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_source_contamination","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:source_contamination","domain_id":"source_contamination","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the source_contamination production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for source_contamination.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: source immune, feed provenance, quarantine, and contamination checks","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:source_contamination","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":18,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:survival_antifragile","domain_id":"survival_antifragile","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the survival_antifragile production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for survival_antifragile.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: incident, chaos drill, outage, rollback, and antifragile recovery receipts","read deployment_events","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:survival_antifragile","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":19,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_uncertainty_communication","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:uncertainty_communication","domain_id":"uncertainty_communication","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the uncertainty_communication production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for uncertainty_communication.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: claim boundary, uncertainty communication, and public-language receipts","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:uncertainty_communication","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":20,"entry_id":"unk_0057ed97b04c1e5f","unknown_id":"unknown_0057ed97b04c1e5f","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","question":"What missing variable would have improved this resolved forecast: spine internal bundle verify?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":21,"entry_id":"unk_0622eb50e34b8c24","unknown_id":"unknown_0622eb50e34b8c24","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","question":"What missing variable would have improved this resolved forecast: spine internal bundle verify?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":22,"entry_id":"unk_07f9a16a0857d5d1","unknown_id":"unknown_07f9a16a0857d5d1","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","question":"What missing variable would have improved this resolved forecast: spine internal bundle verify?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":23,"entry_id":"unk_085a458ed0bff896","unknown_id":"unknown_085a458ed0bff896","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","question":"What missing variable would have improved this resolved forecast: spine internal bundle verify?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":24,"entry_id":"unk_0c8391eaa4c2f259","unknown_id":"unknown_0c8391eaa4c2f259","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","question":"What missing variable would have improved this resolved forecast: spine internal bundle verify?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":25,"entry_id":"unk_0f7367e51b636257","unknown_id":"unknown_0f7367e51b636257","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","question":"What missing variable would have improved this resolved forecast: spine internal bundle verify?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":26,"entry_id":"unk_10c9483cdb215d18","unknown_id":"unknown_10c9483cdb215d18","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"forecast_surprise","question":"What missing variable would have improved this resolved forecast: spine internal bundle verify?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original 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receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: causal intervention, do-calculus, counterfactual, and policy-impact receipts","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:causal_intervention","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":8,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_distribution_shift_robustness","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:distribution_shift_robustness","domain_id":"distribution_shift_robustness","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the distribution_shift_robustness production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for distribution_shift_robustness.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: freshness, drift, deploy parity, and distribution-shift monitor rows","read calibration_records","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:distribution_shift_robustness","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":9,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_domain_transfer","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:domain_transfer","domain_id":"domain_transfer","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the domain_transfer production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for domain_transfer.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: cross-domain transfer, generality ladder, and transfer benchmark rows","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:domain_transfer","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":10,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_forecast_calibration","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:forecast_calibration","domain_id":"forecast_calibration","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the forecast_calibration production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for forecast_calibration.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: forecast-workspace-v1 resolved forecasts and proof-spine calibration rows","read calibration_records","read forecast_workspace","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:forecast_calibration","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":11,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_independent_external_review","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:independent_external_review","domain_id":"independent_external_review","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the independent_external_review production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for independent_external_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: external witness, signed attestation, and independent review packets","read external_review_attestations","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:independent_external_review","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":12,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_memory_governance","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:memory_governance","domain_id":"memory_governance","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the memory_governance production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for memory_governance.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: memory court sessions, canary cells, and governed memory proposals","read event_ledger","read memory_court_sessions","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:memory_governance","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":13,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_operator_transparency","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:operator_transparency","domain_id":"operator_transparency","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the operator_transparency production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for operator_transparency.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: operator UI honesty, Glass Lab, public status, and deployment visibility checks","read agent_reports","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:operator_transparency","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":14,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_replay_integrity","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:replay_integrity","domain_id":"replay_integrity","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the replay_integrity production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for replay_integrity.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: event ledger, WAL, receipt-chain, and replay reconstruction rows","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read replay_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:replay_integrity","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":15,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:schema_constitutional","domain_id":"schema_constitutional","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the schema_constitutional production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for schema_constitutional.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: schema court, route authority, migrations, and constitutional governance receipts","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read route_authority_manifest"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:schema_constitutional","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":16,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:settlement_outcomes","domain_id":"settlement_outcomes","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the settlement_outcomes production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for settlement_outcomes.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: outcome settlement spine and resolution-oracle rows","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:settlement_outcomes","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":17,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_source_contamination","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:source_contamination","domain_id":"source_contamination","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the source_contamination production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for source_contamination.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: source immune, feed provenance, quarantine, and contamination checks","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:source_contamination","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain layer_b_holdout_ready.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":[],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":18,"entry_id":"holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","unknown_id":"holdout_gap:survival_antifragile","domain_id":"survival_antifragile","gap_type":"production_holdout_domain_gap","question":"Which source-bound settled rows does KELLY need next to close the survival_antifragile production-holdout gap?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for survival_antifragile.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: incident, chaos drill, outage, rollback, and antifragile recovery receipts","read deployment_events","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:survival_antifragile","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"The domain gap closes only when the safe drain writes a ready non-fixture receipt and the refreshed gap queue marks the domain 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chain","memory court merge"],"falsifier":"A source-bound production holdout receipt with replay hash would supersede the structural fixture classification.","closure_target":"closure:distribution_shift_robustness:memory_court_authorization","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A source-bound production holdout receipt with replay hash would supersede the structural fixture classification.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":["memory_court_review_required"],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":532,"entry_id":"unk_68f53c6e0c55ba9c","unknown_id":"unknown_68f53c6e0c55ba9c","domain_id":"schema_constitutional","gap_type":"evidence_classification_supersession","question":"What memory cell should supersede 9228a84753101f2234c8f0bcb27707c5b46cd94daca1cb84dd3acafb29d1fb6d after settlement?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["verify settlement receipt","replay prior claim chain","memory court merge"],"experiment_plan":{"version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","status":"planned","observation_needed":"memory_court_authorization","source_plan":["verify settlement receipt","replay prior claim chain","memory court merge"],"falsifier":"A source-bound production holdout receipt with replay hash would supersede the structural fixture classification.","closure_target":"closure:schema_constitutional:memory_court_authorization","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A source-bound production holdout receipt with replay hash would supersede the structural fixture classification.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":["memory_court_review_required"],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false},{"version":"discovery-question-generator-v1","sub_organ_id":"question_generator","rank":533,"entry_id":"unk_d4067f270ca0c327","unknown_id":"unknown_d4067f270ca0c327","domain_id":"independent_external_review","gap_type":"evidence_classification_supersession","question":"What memory cell should supersede 72c7c2ed69364ce53ea2b33de4dd3b3151609be44d43b749a96ec851f28a1a6b after settlement?","generated_without_user_prompt":true,"source_plan":["verify settlement receipt","replay prior claim chain","memory court merge"],"experiment_plan":{"version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","status":"planned","observation_needed":"memory_court_authorization","source_plan":["verify settlement receipt","replay prior claim chain","memory court merge"],"falsifier":"A source-bound production holdout receipt with replay hash would supersede the structural fixture classification.","closure_target":"closure:independent_external_review:memory_court_authorization","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false},"what_would_change_kellys_mind":"A source-bound production holdout receipt with replay hash would supersede the structural fixture classification.","memory_cells_may_mutate_next":["memory_court_review_required"],"direct_public_write_allowed":false,"kelly_internal_governed_write_authority":true,"graphstate_governed_mutation_authority":true,"memory_written_by_this_read":false,"graphstate_mutated_by_this_read":false}],"experiment_plans":[{"entry_id":"unk_3d8f912387a411bb","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_3f26f920afd3d596","falsifier":"Every promoted answer artifact has settlement, calibration, supersession status, memory lineage, and replay receipt.","source_plan":["scan settled forecast workspace","bind calibration record","route truth mutation candidate","verify memory merge replay"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"Every promoted answer artifact has settlement, calibration, supersession status, memory lineage, and replay receipt.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["scan settled forecast workspace","bind calibration record","route truth mutation candidate","verify memory merge replay"],"closure_target":"closure:outcome_closed_learning:settled_forecast_receipt","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"settled_forecast_receipt"}},{"entry_id":"unk_d30acd87fc6b4731","falsifier":"A production-holdout receipt plus replay hash and external attestation exists for this domain.","source_plan":["scan data/generality-eval","bind production holdout receipt","compile external review attestation"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A production-holdout receipt plus replay hash and external attestation exists for this domain.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["scan data/generality-eval","bind production holdout receipt","compile external review attestation"],"closure_target":"closure:level_9_external_review:production_holdout","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"production_holdout"}},{"entry_id":"unk_91f23b2c4e704059","falsifier":"A production-holdout receipt plus replay hash and external attestation exists for this domain.","source_plan":["scan data/generality-eval","bind production holdout receipt","compile external review attestation"],"experiment_plan":{"version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","status":"planned","observation_needed":"production_holdout","source_plan":["scan data/generality-eval","bind production holdout receipt","compile external review attestation"],"falsifier":"A production-holdout receipt plus replay hash and external attestation exists for this domain.","closure_target":"closure:causal_intervention:production_holdout","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","read_only":true,"memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false}},{"entry_id":"unk_e6c4d391c04a2c26","falsifier":"A prior memory cell is superseded through settlement hash, court merge, event ledger receipt, and replayable posterior truth.","source_plan":["read truth mutation ledger","rank memory mutation candidates","prepare court merge packet","append DATA_SUPERSEDED on apply"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A prior memory cell is superseded through settlement hash, court merge, event ledger receipt, and replayable posterior truth.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read truth mutation ledger","rank memory mutation candidates","prepare court merge packet","append DATA_SUPERSEDED on apply"],"closure_target":"closure:seven_sins_memory:DATA_SUPERSEDED_event","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"DATA_SUPERSEDED_event"}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_uncertainty_communication","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for uncertainty_communication.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: claim boundary, uncertainty communication, and public-language receipts","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:uncertainty_communication","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_survival_antifragile","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for survival_antifragile.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: incident, chaos drill, outage, rollback, and antifragile recovery receipts","read deployment_events","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:survival_antifragile","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_source_contamination","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for source_contamination.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: source immune, feed provenance, quarantine, and contamination checks","read agent_reports","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:source_contamination","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_settlement_outcomes","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for settlement_outcomes.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: outcome settlement spine and resolution-oracle rows","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:settlement_outcomes","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_schema_constitutional","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for schema_constitutional.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: schema court, route authority, migrations, and constitutional governance receipts","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read route_authority_manifest"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:schema_constitutional","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_replay_integrity","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for replay_integrity.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: event ledger, WAL, receipt-chain, and replay reconstruction rows","read event_ledger","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read replay_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:replay_integrity","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_operator_transparency","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for operator_transparency.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: operator UI honesty, Glass Lab, public status, and deployment visibility checks","read agent_reports","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:operator_transparency","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_memory_governance","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for memory_governance.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: memory court sessions, canary cells, and governed memory proposals","read event_ledger","read memory_court_sessions","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:memory_governance","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_independent_external_review","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for independent_external_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: external witness, signed attestation, and independent review packets","read external_review_attestations","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:independent_external_review","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_domain_transfer","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for domain_transfer.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: cross-domain transfer, generality ladder, and transfer benchmark rows","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:domain_transfer","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_distribution_shift_robustness","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for distribution_shift_robustness.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: freshness, drift, deploy parity, and distribution-shift monitor rows","read calibration_records","read deployment_events","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts","read source_events"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:distribution_shift_robustness","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_causal_intervention","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for causal_intervention.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: causal intervention, do-calculus, counterfactual, and policy-impact receipts","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:causal_intervention","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_adversarial_review","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for adversarial_review.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: adversarial council, blind fanout, dissent, and quorum-review rows","read agent_reports","read council_runs","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:adversarial_review","closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"benchmark_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"current_settled_rows":0,"minimum_settled_rows":3}},{"entry_id":"holdout_gap_forecast_calibration","falsifier":"A non-fixture production-holdout receipt exists for this domain with controls complete, replay hash, settlement hash, and benchmark-positive prequential score.","source_plan":["Collect at least 3 additional settled, domain-tagged binary rows for forecast_calibration.","Require issued_at before observed_at, probability, actual outcome, settlement receipt hash, and source question.","Export via the Neon proof-spine holdout path with independent review enabled.","Write only receipts that are ready, non-fixture, source-bound, prequential-ready, and benchmark-positive.","Refresh the domain gap queue and governed evidence index after any write.","source summary: forecast-workspace-v1 resolved forecasts and proof-spine calibration rows","read calibration_records","read forecast_workspace","read outcome_settlements","read production_holdout_source_rows","read proof_receipts"],"experiment_plan":{"experiment_id":"production_holdout_gap_test:forecast_calibration","test_kind":"source_bound_production_holdout_gap_closure","source_mode":"settled_production_holdout","minimum_settled_rows":3,"current_settled_rows":0,"required_fields":["id","domain_id","issued_at","observed_at","probability","actual","baseline_probability","settlement_receipt_hash","source_question"],"required_controls":["independent_review_present","replay_hash_present","prequential_ready","severe_test_ready"],"closure_target":["fixture_like false","production_holdout_ready true","all holdout controls true","prequential ready","benchmark_positive true","brier_delta_vs_baseline >= 0","settled row count >= 3","no memory write","no GraphState mutation","no public claim promotion"],"replay_required":true,"settlement_required":true,"benchmark_required":true}},{"entry_id":"unk_d76c919ca49229d6","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_ffb555edb80f6103","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_4f6e45f6fd875ecd","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_8d71c1aea0af7c18","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_1ccc1758f664f136","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_b19f8afabdce96f7","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_71de3880eb25293b","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_49d1e228d246cd20","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_ac78215f8dd248b8","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_907180559abf9e30","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_1b558fad627bc0fa","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_63d3c2add373600e","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_a6e2a5f434b2ace8","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_c7e2c36ac3c4d093","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_b213c5f1b70d7234","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_deaabbbf1d4f0de2","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_ede26a877b60391e","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_77898ba57759f92d","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_135e99e227d6a241","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_0057ed97b04c1e5f","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_4c4d372016845ed3","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_be51971300786980","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_1162575e1b42c4d3","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_3f534897211e2f00","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_f0553c838b7efaf3","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_4f4bbe39f95ce24d","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:forecast_error_attribution","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"forecast_error_attribution"}},{"entry_id":"unk_4913f3c1d2125d58","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing variables settles with lower Brier than the original forecast.","source_plan":["read resolved forecast workspace","compare evidence notes against outcome","name missing variable candidate","queue follow-up settlement check"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"A follow-up forecast with named missing 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merge"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"If replay confirms settlement 552acc8a3928, retire the prior forecast claim and promote the settled outcome.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["verify settlement receipt","replay prior claim chain","memory court merge"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:memory_court_authorization","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"memory_court_authorization"}},{"entry_id":"unk_22aa3043a9efb14f","falsifier":"If replay confirms settlement ca0b19487f7a, retire the prior forecast claim and promote the settled outcome.","source_plan":["verify settlement receipt","replay prior claim chain","memory court 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merge"],"experiment_plan":{"status":"planned","version":"discovery-experiment-planner-v1","kills_if":"settlement or replay shows the hypothesis cannot explain the gap","falsifier":"If replay confirms settlement cce265c8aab9, retire the prior forecast claim and promote the settled outcome.","read_only":true,"weakens_if":"new evidence is irrelevant, stale, or contradictory","confirms_if":"new evidence lowers uncertainty or explains the prediction error","source_plan":["verify settlement receipt","replay prior claim chain","memory court merge"],"closure_target":"closure:forecast_calibration:memory_court_authorization","memory_written":false,"graphstate_mutated":false,"observation_needed":"memory_court_authorization"}},{"entry_id":"unk_62b2e10bf0091909","falsifier":"If replay confirms settlement 553c066b434f, retire the prior forecast claim and promote the settled outcome.","source_plan":["verify settlement receipt","replay prior claim chain","memory court 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