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KELLY answer

Statistics Canada's latest checked release puts total CPI at 2.8% year over year; CPI-trim was 1.8% and CPI-median was 1.9%. The six-month outlook would change most if several consecutive releases show core inflation moving persistently away from 2%, if price increases broaden beyond volatile categories, or if wage, expectations, housing, commodity, or policy signals change the expected persistence. The strongest lower-inflation evidence would be repeated soft core and breadth readings; the strongest higher-inflation evidence would be renewed broad acceleration. This is a bounded outlook check, not a settled six-month forecast.

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Uncertainty

forward claim not settled

Memory effect

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